Estimation of HIV prevalence and burden in Nigeria: a Bayesian predictive modelling study.

Background: The cost of population-based surveys is high and obtaining funding for a national population-based survey may take several years, with follow-up surveys taking up to five years. Survey-based prevalence estimates are prone to bias owing to survey non-participation, as not all individuals eligible to participate in a survey may be reached, and some of those who are contacted do not consent to HIV testing. This study describes how Bayesian statistical modeling may be used to estimate HIV prevalence at the state level in a reliable and timely manner. Methods: We analysed national HIV testing services (HTS) data for Nigeria from October 1, 2020, to September 30, 2021, to derive state-level HIV seropositivity rates. We used a Bayesian linear model with normal prior distribution and Markov Chain Monte Carlo approach to estimate HIV state-level prevalence for the 36 states +1 FCT in Nigeria. Our outcome variable was the HIV seropositivity rates and we adjusted for demographic, economic, biological, and societal covariates collected from the 2018 Nigeria HIV/AIDS Indicator and Impact Survey (NAIIS), 2018 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey (NDHS) and 2016-17 Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys (MICS). The estimated population of 15-49 years olds in each state was multiplied by estimates from the estimated prevalence to generate state-level HIV burden. Findings: Our estimated national HIV prevalence was 2.1% (95% CI: 1.5-2.7%) among adults aged 15-49 years in Nigeria, which corresponds to approximately 2 million people living with HIV, compared to previous national HIV prevalence estimates of 1.4% from the 2018 NAIIS and UNAIDS estimation and projection package PLHIV estimation of 1.8 million in 2022. Our modelled HIV prevalence in Nigeria varies by state, with Benue (5.7%, 95% CI: 5.0-6.3) having the highest prevalence, followed by Rivers (5.2%, 95% CI: 4.6-5.8%), Akwa Ibom (3.5%, 95% CI: 2.9-4.1%), Edo (3.4%, 95% CI: 2.9-4.0%) and Taraba (3.0%, 95% CI: 2.6-3.7%) placing fourth and fifth, respectively. Jigawa had the lowest HIV prevalence (0.3%), which was consistent with prior estimates. Interpretation: This model provides a comprehensive and flexible use of evidence to estimate state-level HIV seroprevalence for Nigeria using program data and adjusting for explanatory variables. Thus, investment in program data for HIV surveillance will provide reliable estimates for HIV sub-national monitoring and improve planning and interventions for epidemiologic control. Funding: This article was made possible by the support of the American people through the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) under the U.S. President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR).

From Paper Files to Web-Based Application for Data-Driven Monitoring of HIV Programs: Nigeria's Journey to a National Data Repository for Decision-Making and Patient Care.

BACKGROUND: Timely and reliable data are crucial for clinical, epidemiologic, and program management decision making. Electronic health information systems provide platforms for managing large longitudinal patient records. Nigeria implemented the National Data Repository (NDR) to create a central data warehouse of all people living with human immunodeficiency virus (PLHIV) while providing useful functionalities to aid decision making at different levels of program implementation. OBJECTIVE: We describe the Nigeria NDR and its development process, including its use for surveillance, research, and national HIV program monitoring toward achieving HIV epidemic control. METHODS: Stakeholder engagement meetings were held in 2013 to gather information on data elements and vocabulary standards for reporting patient-level information, technical infrastructure, human capacity requirements, and information flow. Findings from these meetings guided the development of the NDR. An implementation guide provided common terminologies and data reporting structures for data exchange between the NDR and the electronic medical record (EMR) systems. Data from the EMR were encoded in extensible markup language and sent to the NDR over secure hypertext transfer protocol after going through a series of validation processes. RESULTS: By June 30, 2021, the NDR had up-to-date records of 1,477,064 (94.4%) patients receiving HIV treatment across 1,985 health facilities, of which 1,266,512 (85.7%) patient records had fingerprint template data to support unique patient identification and record linkage to prevent registration of the same patient under different identities. Data from the NDR was used to support HIV program monitoring, case-based surveillance and production of products like the monthly lists of patients who have treatment interruptions and dashboards for monitoring HIV test and start. CONCLUSION: The NDR enabled the availability of reliable and timely data for surveillance, research, and HIV program monitoring to guide program improvements to accelerate progress toward epidemic control.

Partner HIV serostatus disclosure and determinants of serodiscordance among prevention of mother to child transmission clients in Nigeria.

BACKGROUND: Serodiscordance exists when the known HIV result of one member of a couple pair is positive while that of his/her partner is negative. In sub-Saharan Africa, in stable long-term couple partnerships (married or cohabiting), serodiscordance is a growing source of HIV-transmissions. This study aimed to ascertain across Nigeria, serodiscordance prevalence, partner HIV status disclosure and explore associations between suspected determinants and serodiscordance among PMTCT enrolled HIV positive pregnant women and their partners. METHODS: A retrospective Quality of Care performance evaluation was conducted in July 2013 among 544 HIV positive pregnant enrolees of PMTCT services in 62 comprehensive facilities across 5 of Nigeria's 6 geo-political zones. Data of client-partner pairs were abstracted from pre-existing medical records and analysed using chi-square statistics and logistic regression. RESULTS: A total of 544 (22%) of 2499 clients with complete partner details were analysed. Clients' age ranged from 15 to 50 years with a mean of 30 years. Serodiscordant prevalence was 52% and chi-square test suggests no significant difference between serodiscordant and seroconcordant clients and their partners (p = 0.265). Serodiscordant rates were closely associated trend wise with national HIV sero-prevalence rates and the median CD4+ count was 425 ul/mm(3) (IQR: 290-606 ul/mm(3)). Similar proportion of clients (99%) received testing and agreed to disclose status to their partners. Yet, there was no association between clients agreement to disclose HIV status to their partners and these partners getting tested and receiving results (p = 0.919). Significantly, 87% of clients in concordant HIV positive relationships appeared to be symptomatic (WHO clinical stage 3 or 4) compared to 13% clients in HIV-discordant relationships (p < 0.003). Client's age and CD4+ count did not aptly predict serodiscordance (Wald = 0.011 and 0.436 respectively). However, the WHO clinical staging appeared to be a better predictor of serodiscordance and concordance than other variables (Wald = 3.167). CONCLUSIONS: The results suggest that clinical staging (WHO) could be a better predictor of client- partner pair discordant or concordant HIV serostatus. Early partner testing and notification can avert seroconversion, hence properly designed and mainstreamed interventions that target serodiscordant couples are essential.